In a new study, the Northwestern team developed a new mathematical model showing that fashion trends tend to cycle roughly every 20 years. By analyzing roughly 37,000 images of women’s clothing spanning from 1869 to today, the team found that styles rise in popularity, fall out of favor and then eventually experience renewal.
Using custom tools, they measured key features of dresses—hemline, neckline and waistline positions—turning clothing designs into numerical data that could be measured and tracked across decades. To analyze the data, researchers built a mathematical model based on a simple idea: the tension between wanting to stand out while still fitting in. Once a style becomes too common, designers move away from it—but not so far that the clothes become unwearable.
“Over time, this constant push to be different from the recent past causes styles to swing back and forth,” Abrams said. “The system intrinsically wants to oscillate, and we see those cycles in the data.”
But this pattern has lost its clarity in recent decades. Starting in the 1980s, the data show a wider range of skirt lengths appearing at the same time, suggesting that fashion trends are becoming more fragmented. Rather than one dominant trend, niches emerge, reflecting more diversity in fashion.